Top 7 geopolitical risks for 2025

Top 7 Geopolitical Risks for 2025

1. Escalation of the Ukraine War & European Security Crisis: The war in Ukraine remains a primary concern, with risks of escalation and wider European security implications. This includes potential for miscalculation, expansion of the conflict geographically, and continued energy and economic instability in Europe. Sources emphasize that the outcome of this conflict will significantly shape the future of European geopolitics and transatlantic relations. Geopolitical Monitor & Crisis Group
2. US-China Relations & Taiwan: Tensions between the US and China, particularly concerning Taiwan, are a major global risk. Analysts are watching closely for potential flashpoints in the Taiwan Strait and the broader South China Sea. Economic competition and technological rivalry further exacerbate these tensions. Chatham House & Geopolitical Monitor
3. Global Economic Fragmentation & Trade Wars: Rising protectionism and geopolitical tensions are contributing to a fragmentation of the global economy. The risk of trade wars, particularly between the US and EU, and the disruption of global supply chains remain significant concerns. This economic fracturing could undermine global growth and exacerbate inequalities. Geopolitical Monitor & CSIS
4. Middle East Instability & Iran: The Middle East remains volatile, with the potential for escalation involving Iran and its regional rivals. Concerns include Iran’s nuclear program, proxy conflicts, and the broader struggle for regional influence. Any miscalculation or escalation in this region could have global repercussions, especially for energy markets. Geopolitical Monitor & Crisis Group
5. Climate Change & Resource Scarcity: Climate change is increasingly recognized as a geopolitical risk multiplier. Resource scarcity, climate-related disasters, and migration flows are expected to intensify competition and instability in various regions. The Arctic, in particular, is highlighted as a region where climate change intersects with growing geopolitical competition. Geopolitical Monitor & S&P Global
6. AI & Technological Disruption: The rapid advancement of Artificial Intelligence presents both opportunities and risks. Geopolitically, AI is becoming a domain of strategic competition, raising concerns about AI governance, cybersecurity, and the potential for misuse. The AI race between nations and its impact on military and economic power is a key area to watch. Chatham House & Geopolitical Monitor
7. Fragile and Conflict-Affected States: Beyond major power rivalries, conflicts in fragile and conflict-affected states like Sudan, Myanmar, and Syria continue to pose significant humanitarian and geopolitical risks. These conflicts can have regional spillover effects, create space for non-state actors, and undermine global stability. Geopolitical Monitor & Crisis Group

It’s important to note that these risks are interconnected and can amplify each other. Understanding these top geopolitical risks is crucial for navigating the complexities of 2025 and beyond.